Chelsea's schools are bracing for a tough budget year, and district leaders want families to hear about it early.

At a special School Committee meeting on Oct. 7, district finance chief Billie Jo Turner projected a $22.3 million shortfall for the 2027–28 school year, according to Chelsea Massachusetts News.

This is an early estimate, not a list of cuts. No cuts have been approved.

Where the gap comes from

Turner laid out six pressures that add up to $22.3 million:

$6.6 million in lost state aid from fewer students

$6.7 million for salary steps and cost-of-living raises

$2.5 million for health insurance, pensions and related costs

$1.5 million for special education tuition at out-of-district schools

$2.5 million for transportation

$2.5 million for utilities and insurance

Turner said the transportation figure is conservative. Bus companies have warned of increases of 40% to 60%.

Fewer students, less state aid

One major driver is enrollment. Superintendent Almi Abeyta said the district has lost about 650 students over the last two years, according to the meeting transcript.

State aid follows students. Turner's projection assumes about 304 fewer students, at roughly $22,000 each.

"We've never seen a dip like this before," Abeyta said. She called the mix of falling enrollment and rising costs "the perfect storm."

What's at stake

Since 2019, the state's Student Opportunity Act has sent extra money to districts like Chelsea. Abeyta said that funding let the district add almost 240 positions over six years. She warned that a gap this size could wipe out those gains in a single year.

School Committee member Sarah Neville put the gap at roughly 223 positions' worth.

This isn't the first squeeze. In March, the district faced an $8.6 million gap after enrollment dropped by 350 students, and it proposed cutting about 70 educator positions. Hundreds of people packed a March budget hearing, Boston 25 News reported. The district's March budget presentation noted that Student Opportunity Act funding was already being offset by enrollment losses.

Why the numbers could change

Every figure is preliminary. State revenue numbers for the governor's budget aren't expected until January. The district will also bid out transportation, food service and utilities, and bargain new union contracts.

Abeyta said the city manager urged her to "get this out early." She has also reached out to Chelsea's State House delegation, and she said Sen. Sal DiDomenico told her he would look into ways to help.

Member Jake Small summed up the choice plainly: closing a gap "boils down to two things: finding more money or spending less money."

How residents can follow along

District leaders said a community budget process will begin in November, and the district plans to publish a timeline. School Committee members also said a joint meeting with the City Council is being planned for November, though no date had been set.

What to watch

The $22.3 million figure and its breakdown come from the district's presentation at the Oct. 7 meeting. Expect them to change as state aid numbers, bids and contracts come in.